Scotland's Census 2022 - Rounded population estimates

A National Statistics Publication for Scotland

Published: 14 September 2023

Download the data used in this release

Population of Scotland

On Census Day, 20 March 2022, the population of Scotland was estimated to be 5,436,600. This is the largest population ever recorded by Scotland’s Census.

The population grew by 141,200 (2.7%) since the previous census in 2011. This is a slower rate of growth than between 2001 and 2011, when the population grew by 233,400 (4.6%).

The other UK censuses showed higher rates of population growth than in Scotland. In England and Wales the population increased by 6.3% between 2011 and 2021. In Northern Ireland the population increased by 5.1% over the same period.

Population change is driven by births, deaths and migration (people moving into or out of Scotland).

Since the 2011 census there were around 585,000 births and 634,800 deaths registered in Scotland. Without migration the population would have decreased by around 49,800. But the population has grown because more people moved to Scotland than moved out.

There were 2,794,900 (51.4%) females and 2,641,800 (48.6%) males. This is similar to 2011 when the census showed 51.5% of the population was female and 48.5% was male.

Working with census statistics

Census statistics represent the total population rather than just those who completed the questionnaire. Since the 2001 censuses, statistical modelling has been used across the United Kingdom to produce total population estimates from census responses.

As with all estimates, there is a level of uncertainty. Users should consider uncertainty when working with census estimates. For example:

• Where population estimates show change since previous censuses smaller than +/-1%, this should be interpreted as minimal change rather than as an increase or decrease.
• Where differences between council areas are smaller than +/-1%, the areas should be interpreted as having a similar population size.

Further information on how we have managed uncertainty is provided in the More information on quality section. This includes more detail on how we measure uncertainty and the work we have done to account for the lower than expected response rate.

Ageing population

Scotland’s population is ageing. There are more people in the older age groups than ever recorded in Scotland's Census. There are now over one million people aged 65 and over (1,091,000). This is over a quarter of a million higher than the number of people under 15 (832,300).

Other countries are seeing similar trends. Recent censuses in the rest of the UK and in several other G7 countries showed that their populations are ageing too.

In Scotland the 65 and older age group (65+) saw a large increase compared to 2011:

• 0 to 14 year old population decreased by 21,800 (down 2.5%)
• 15 to 64 year old population decreased by 37,700 (down 1.1%)
• 65+ population increased by 200,700 (up 22.5%)

The 65+ population increased in other UK countries too. In England and Wales the 65+ population increased by 20.0% between 2011 and 2021. In Northern Ireland the 65+ population increased by 23.8% over the same period.

The chart below shows the population by five-year age groups and sex. The female population is shown on the left with males on the right. The bars show population data from the 2022 census.

There are more females than males overall and particularly in the older age groups. This reflects the fact that females live longer on average.

The outline drawn over the bars shows the population data from the 1921 census. We can see that the 2022 age structure is much narrower at the bottom and wider at the top. This shows how Scotland's age structure has changed over time. Scotland has fewer young people and more older people in 2022.

The main reasons for Scotland’s ageing population are:

• people born in the post-war baby boom getting older
• the number of births dropping since the 1960s
• people living longer

Population in council areas

The population increased in 17 council areas between 2011 and 2022. The population decreased in 10 council areas over the same period. There were 5 council areas that saw minimal change.

The council area that saw the largest increase was Midlothian (up 16.1%) while Na h-Eileanan Siar saw the biggest decrease (down 5.5%).

Most of the council areas in the Central Belt saw increases in their populations, particularly those around Edinburgh. These increases were driven by migration from within Scotland and from elsewhere.

Most of the council areas that saw a decrease in population are in the west or south west. These decreases were driven by a higher number of deaths than births between censuses.

Two council areas elsewhere in Scotland saw a decrease in population. In Angus the decrease was also driven by a higher number of deaths than births. But in Shetland Islands the decrease was driven by migration.

The four largest cities in Scotland were amongst the areas with the lowest proportions of people aged 65 and over. The council area with the lowest proportion of people aged 65 and over was Glasgow City (14.0%).

The council areas with the lowest proportion of people in the 65+ group also have higher proportions of young adults. These council areas tend to have large student populations.

The areas with the largest proportion of people aged 65 and over tend to be in the west or south of Scotland. The council area with the largest proportion of people aged 65 and over was Argyll and Bute (27.2%).

Number of households

On Census Day there were 2,509,300 households with at least one usual resident. This is up 136,500 (5.8%) from the 2011 census. The percentage increase in the number of households (5.8%) is higher than the increase in the population (2.7%).

We know the population is ageing and older people are more likely to live alone or in smaller households. There is a related trend towards smaller households and more households overall.

The number of households increased in 29 council areas in Scotland. There was minimal change in Dundee City, Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire. Council areas in the east and north of the country have generally seen bigger increases in household numbers compared to the west and south.

Changes in household numbers and population are generally related. Council areas with the biggest increases in households tend to be those with the biggest population increases.

The general pattern across council areas is that household numbers increased faster than the population since the last census. But Glasgow City had a larger increase in population (up 4.6%) than in households (up 2.8%). Most of the increase in population was in the 15 to 64 year old age group. People in this group are less likely to live in smaller households.

Population density

On Census Day there were 70 residents per square kilometre in Scotland. This is up from 68 residents per square kilometre in the 2011 census.

Scotland has a much lower population density than England and Wales where there were 395 residents per square kilometre in 2021. Northern Ireland had a population density of 140 residents per square kilometre in 2021.

Population density varies by council area across Scotland with city council areas having a much higher density than other council areas. Aberdeen City, Dundee City, City of Edinburgh and Glasgow City are all clearly visible on the map below.

Glasgow City has the highest density of 3,555 residents per square kilometre. Na h-Eileanan Siar has the lowest density of 8.6 residents per square kilometre. The only other council area with a density less than 10 residents per square kilometre was Highland with 9.2.

Future census publications

We will publish outputs from Scotland's Census 2022 in phases. This reflects the additional work required to produce more detailed census statistics.

Population estimates

The first phase covers our population and household estimates. The next release in this phase will include unrounded population estimates by age and sex for small areas. That release is planned for spring 2024.

Topic summaries

We will then publish census data for individual topics. This will begin to show a detailed picture of who lives in Scotland including information on:

• Ethnic group, national identity, language and religion
• Demography and migration
• Armed forces veterans
• Sexual orientation and trans status or history
• Housing
• Education, Labour market and travel to work
• Health, disability and unpaid care

The topic order above is provisional.

Topic data will be published down to output area where possible. Output areas are made up of approximately 50 households. We will also produce breakdowns of these topics by age and sex where appropriate.

Multivariate/Build your own tables

In the following phase we will publish multivariate data. This means we will publish tables which include more than one census topic variable. For example, ethnic group by country of birth.

Our Flexible Table Builder will allow users to create their own census tables. Users will be able to combine the different census variables they are interested in.

For more information visit the census outputs release schedule page. 

More information on quality

The quality of census data is important. We made innovative changes to our approach to account for the census response rate (89.8%).

Census statistics represent the total population rather than just those who completed the questionnaire. Since the 2001 censuses, statistical modelling has been used across the United Kingdom to produce total population estimates from census responses.

As with previous censuses we conducted a Census Coverage Survey (CCS) immediately after the 2022 census collection. The results of this survey were used in our modelling. We then went a step further than in previous censuses and supplemented the CCS with administrative data. This reduced the uncertainty in our population estimates.

Our targets for uncertainty referred to confidence intervals which are a standard statistical measure produced as part of our modelling. In simple terms, a confidence interval can be thought of as a range of values around an estimate that the true value is highly likely to be in.

The confidence interval targets for Scotland’s Census 2022 population estimates were +/-0.4% at national level and +/-3% at council area level. At national level the confidence interval achieved was +/-0.51%, with all council areas but one being within +/-3%. East Lothian (+/-3.07%) was slightly outside the target interval. 

This means we have a population estimate for Scotland of 5,436,600 and a confidence interval of +/-0.51% (+/-27,900 people). Effectively we can be very confident that the true population is between 5,408,700 and 5,464,500. These confidence intervals are similar to 2011. At the national level the confidence interval in 2011 was +/-0.44% (+/-23,000 people), with all council area intervals within +/-3%.

Quality assurance

We have carried out extensive quality assurance work to produce high quality census estimates. We have published a report on our approach to statistical quality assurance alongside this release.

Rounding

This release uses rounded population and household estimates. Figures may not add exactly to totals because of the rounding. Unrounded figures will be released in spring 2024. Figures may differ slightly in future releases because of the impact of removing rounding and applying further statistical processes. Unrounded census data is used for all comparisons with previous censuses.

A National Statistics Publication for Scotland

The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. This provides assurance that these statistics are of the highest quality, meet user needs, and comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Further information on National Statistics is published by the UK Statistics Authority.

Glossary

Age

A person's age on Census Day, 20 March 2022. Infants aged under 1 year are classified as 0 years of age.

Household

A household is defined as:

• one person living alone, or
• a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room, or dining area

This includes:

• all sheltered accommodation units in an establishment (irrespective of whether there are other communal facilities), and
• all people living in caravans on any type of site that is their usual residence; this will include anyone who has no other usual residence elsewhere in the UK

A household must contain at least one person whose place of usual residence is at the address. A group of short-term residents living together is not classified as a household, and neither is a group of people at an address where only visitors are staying.

Council area

There are 32 council areas in Scotland. Councils provide public services, including education, social care, waste management, libraries and planning.

Population density

This is the number of people who live within an area per square kilometre. One square kilometre is equal to 100 hectares.

Sex

This is the sex recorded by the person completing the census. The options were "Female" and "Male".

We provided guidance on how to answer the sex question.

Usual resident

A usual resident is anyone who on Census Day, 20 March 2022, was in the UK and had stayed or intended to stay in the UK for a period of 12 months or more, or had a permanent UK address and was outside the UK and intended to be outside the UK for less than 12 months.

G7 countries

The G7 is a group of seven countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

UK censuses 

The Office for National Statistics is responsible for the census in England and Wales. Data and supporting information is available on the ONS website.

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency is responsible for the census in Northern Ireland. Data and supporting information is available on the NISRA website.

Contact us 

Please get in touch if you need any further information, or have any suggestions for improvement.

E-mail: [email protected]
NRS customer services telephone: 0131 202 0451

Join our mailing list

If you would like to receive updates about census statistics get in touch via our contact us page. 

© Crown Copyright 2023 SG/2023/176