The future of Scotland's Census - Recommendation from National Records of Scotland
Introduction
National Records of Scotland (NRS), on behalf of the Registrar General for Scotland, is responsible for conducting Scotland’s census. These statistics are of national strategic importance and bring a wide range of benefits to Scotland.
For over 200 years Scotland has relied on a decennial census to underpin national and local decision making. A census has been taken every ten years since 1801, except for 1941. The census in 2022 was delayed by a year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The result has been the production of an unparalleled source of consistent and comparable information about the population, household characteristics, housing and individuals.
Background
Census statistics accurately describe Scotland’s population, including its size, distribution, demographics and characteristics. Census statistics inform policy across government enabling good quality decision making in areas such as healthcare, education and transport. They help local authorities plan infrastructure, housing and community services. They support businesses to develop economic strategies by providing insights into workforce, employment and economic trends. Academics use census data to research poverty, health and migration. They assist with equality monitoring and promoting social inclusion. Scotland’s population statistics also help determine billions of pounds of funding via the Barnett formula, local government settlement and health board allocations. Information on the size, age, sex, and location of Scotland’s population is fundamental to the work of government and helps to directly inform and monitor the Scottish Government’s four delivery priorities.
Users expect the information generated by the census to be authoritative, accurate and comparable for all parts of Scotland down to very small levels of geography. Currently, only a decennial population census can provide this detailed information on a consistent basis. That is because the census is the only mandatory survey of its kind to ask everyone in Scotland the same questions at the same time. No other survey provides the richness and range of information or engages the public in the way that the census does. It is therefore rightly acknowledged as playing a fundamental and unique role in the provision of comprehensive and robust population statistics.
NRS gathered, analysed and presented over a billion statistics from the 2022 Census, publishing our first outputs in September 2023 and making available the census flexible table builder and mapping tool in early 2025. Despite a lower-than-expected response rate, innovative methodological interventions have enabled NRS to produce high quality, accredited, data that tells us a great deal about Scotland today – from religion to housing, from education to travel. It also shows us how people have adapted over time, the changes in society and the differences in our communities. These statistics continue to make headlines and have made us more aware of who we are and how we live our lives.
But this is only the start of the story with census data providing a wealth of benefits across multiple areas. We are already seeing organisations using 2022 Census data to help inform decision making and equality monitoring. Carers Scotland and the Centre for Care used census statistics to be able to estimate the value of unpaid carers in Scotland at almost £16 billion. In addition, the Scottish Government have used 2022 Census data to publish a paper comparing veterans to non-veterans, explaining how the veterans population differs from the non-veteran population and how to account for this in analysis, supporting core commitments under the ‘Armed Forces Covenant’. While we’re already seeing the value of 2022 Census data, as with 2011 Census data, we expect to see many more examples in the coming years of how the data is being used by organisations right across Scotland to inform their planning and decision making. Ultimately, census data leads to positive interventions for the people of Scotland and forms a vital part of our long-term social history, telling the story of Scotland’s people for generations to come.
It is for these reasons that Scottish Ministers have accepted the Registrar General for Scotland’s recommendation, in principle, to conduct a mandatory questionnaire-based census of population and housing for Scotland in 2031.
NRS will now work with census taking partners in the rest of the UK to develop more detailed proposals.
Lessons learned from Scotland’s Census 2022
Scotland’s Census is built on lessons from previous censuses. We are always mindful of the opportunity to improve and innovate the delivery of the census. Whether that be better meeting the needs of data users or continuing to align with the Scottish Government, particularly in pursuit of public service reform.
In December 2024, NRS published its Scotland’s Census 2022 – General Report. Crucially, the report identifies a number of lessons for the future of population statistics in Scotland. Pertinent to NRS’s recommendation for a 2031 Census are the use of administrative data as part of a future system and ensuring close collaboration with other parts of the UK. NRS plans to build on this experience and learning as part of its plans for a 2031 Census.
1. Design in use of administrative data from the outset
As with every census, we are keen to learn lessons and innovate where possible to better meet the needs of the people of Scotland and data users. Reflecting on our experiences from Scotland’s Census 2022, we recognise that a key lesson is to design and integrate the use of administrative data from the outset of our planning and design phases. As noted in the recommendations from England & Wales and Northern Ireland, NRS share an aspiration with other parts of the UK to go further with administrative data and consider whether it could be used to transform how we produce population statistics in Scotland, now, and in the future.
Looking forward, we also see the potential for administrative data to play a greater role in the production of census type statistics. Scope to go further with the integration of administrative data would be greater with more access to key sources of administrative data. Access to HMRC and DWP data, for example, would meet a user requirement for income data and inform Scottish Government policies aligned to growing the economy and eradicating child poverty.
2. Work closely with UK census taking bodies, sharing expertise and contracts
In England & Wales, responsibility for the census lies with the UK Statistics Authority and is conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In Northern Ireland, responsibility lies with the Registrar General for Northern Ireland and the census is conducted by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). The three UK census offices cooperated closely in planning for their censuses in 2021 / 2022. This helped harmonise outputs across the UK, with NRS playing a pivotal role in describing the UK population and meeting the needs of many users. It also provided for efficiencies while remaining sensitive to the different circumstances and user needs of each country. This close co-operation was formalised in 2021 via a statement of agreement between the National Statistician and the Registrars General for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
NRS worked closely with ONS and NISRA throughout the 2022 programme for the preparation, design, build, test, delivery and the publication of outputs from Scotland’s Census. Continuing to collaborate with ONS and NISRA for a future census is essential to ensure UK harmonisation of census outputs and the coherence of statistics which underpin the wider UK statistics system. NRS is keen to collaborate further with the potential for even greater opportunities for efficiencies across all UK census taking bodies.
Recommendations
Under the Census Act 1920, the Registrar General for Scotland is responsible for conducting Scotland’s census. Therefore a 2031 Census will be a census managed by Scotland, informed by the people of Scotland. Over the coming years, National Records of Scotland (NRS) will consult extensively to ensure Scotland’s Census 2031 meets the needs of Scottish data users, as well as putting in place collection methods which enable all of Scotland to respond and have their voices heard.
Following agreement from Scottish Ministers, the Registrar General for Scotland will take forward the following actions in support of the future of population statistics in Scotland:
- NRS will deliver a mandatory questionnaire based population Census in 2031. This will be developed in partnership with, and at the same time as, the rest of the UK. Scotland’s Census 2031 will be underpinned by Scottish legislation and will meet the needs of data users for statistics which represent Scotland’s whole population.
- NRS learnt lessons from Scotland’s Census 2022 and shares the same aspiration as our UK partners to consider, in the long term, the best way to produce statistics about our whole population through the effective and timely application of administrative data. We will work closely with our UK census taking partners to acquire equivalent administrative data assets for Scotland to supplement and support 2031 Census delivery. Looking ahead, we will work with the Scottish Government, and the wider Scottish statistical system, to support ongoing efforts to realise the benefits from the greater use of administrative data. We will also investigate greater use of administrative data as the basis for a transformed approach to statistical production of intercensal estimates in Scotland.
- NRS will work with the Scottish Government’s Chief Statistician and other data producing partners in Scotland to support the regular, reliable and ongoing flow of critical Scottish administrative datasets in support of the 2031 Census and take forward wider ambitions to improve and better integrate analysis across the public sector. Where required, we will work with the Scottish Government and other data producing partners in Scotland to ensure that data owners are supported through this commitment to help realise a wider benefit to the population of Scotland through joint efforts.
Conclusion
The three UK census taking bodies are each responsible for making recommendations on the census to their respective Governments.
Over the coming years, National Records of Scotland (NRS) will work with partners across the UK, including the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and the Welsh Government. The UK Concordat on Statistics sets out how the UK and Devolved Governments cooperate in relation to the production of statistics, statistical standards and the statistics profession.
Subject to each government’s response, as in the past, there will be separate censuses in Scotland, England & Wales and Northern Ireland delivered at the same time. Where appropriate, NRS will work with ONS and NISRA to design and build a census for 2031. The census will also, where possible and necessary, harmonise outputs across the UK. At the same time, Scotland’s Census will meet the needs of our data users and our unique characteristics and geography.
As noted in wider UK recommendation papers, NRS support the ambition (as noted in the recent Independent Review of the UK Statistics Authority) for UK census taking bodies to work together to ensure that coherent and comparable UK population data and statistics continue to be produced to inform communities across the UK.
We have started to plan for the next census by building on the success of Scotland’s Census 2022. NRS are launching a consultation to inform our work on the topics to be included in Scotland’s Census 2031.
We will be seeking views on:
- How you currently use the 2022 Census outputs, the benefits of the census data and how far these meet your needs.
- Your future requirements for statistics about Scotland’s people and their characteristics.
This marks the beginning of a much wider programme of engagement. We will work with a range of stakeholders to ascertain their views on the topics to be gathered in 2031.